EU Tariffs and ACI: Is a Trade War with Tech Consequences Looming?
From Liberation Day to Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI)? The currently looming trade war between the USA and Europe could have devastating consequences for European businesses that rely on US technologies. Trump's imposition of 20% tariffs on EU imports on 2nd April 2025 has significantly intensified the trade conflict between the USA and the EU. This could be the beginning of an escalation that extends far beyond traditional traded goods. Is a tech trade war now threatening?
From Steel to Silicon Valley: How the ACI Comes into Play
The tariffs imposed by Trump initially primarily affect physical goods such as cars, steel and aluminium. However, the conflict could quickly spread to the digital sector. The EU has already announced countermeasures worth €26 billion, but these could be just the beginning.
The EU is considering using the Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI) against the USA as a "last resort". Specifically, the ACI could be used to make it more difficult for US tech companies to access the European public procurement market – a market worth around €2 trillion (approximately $2.2 trillion) annually. This would mean that American technology providers could be disadvantaged or even excluded from public tenders in the EU. In addition, fiscal and regulatory measures could be targeted specifically against digital platforms from the USA.
Anti-Coercion Instrument (ACI)
The ACI came into force in 2023 and provides the EU with a legal framework to respond to economic coercive measures from third countries. It encompasses a wide range of possible countermeasures such as tariffs, restrictions on trade in services, limitations on intellectual property rights and exclusion from public contracts, which could make it difficult for US tech companies to access the €2 trillion procurement market. These measures are designed to exert economic pressure to promote compliance with international obligations.
Threatened Infrastructure: How European Businesses Could Be Affected
For European businesses that rely on US technology services such as cloud solutions or email services, the consequences could be far-reaching. Initially, costs are likely to rise, as tech giants such as Apple, Google and Meta will probably pass additional regulatory burdens on to their customers. At the same time, uncertainties in the EU-US data privacy framework could lead to legal complications in data transfer – a problem that is particularly critical for data-intensive business models.
In extreme cases, access to important updates, security patches or technical support could even be restricted, which would bring considerable security risks. Last but not least, businesses face new compliance challenges, as they may need to comprehensively adapt their IT infrastructure to meet changed regulatory requirements.
Small and medium-sized enterprises in particular could be disproportionately affected, as they often lack the resources for costly and rapid IT changes.
Danish Pioneers: How European Alternatives Are Already Being Used
Those who want to act now can follow Denmark's example. In response to geopolitical tensions, Danish healthcare has already begun to convert its digital infrastructure. A strategically valuable decision to reduce dependence on US technologies.
This development is in line with the EU's long-term aspirations for greater digital sovereignty. The EuroStack initiative, which is supported by over 100 EU organisations and is driving the development of a European cloud stack infrastructure, shows the growing awareness of the need for technological independence. What is already happening in Denmark could soon become standard practice for businesses across the EU – not just as a response to acute geopolitical tensions, but as a long-term strategy for minimising risk.
Strategic Steps for European Businesses
To avoid being surprised by "Day Zero" – the moment when US technology services suddenly disappear – European businesses should act now:
- Conduct a risk assessment: Analyse your dependence on US technology providers and identify critical areas.
- Evaluate European alternatives: Examine available European options for your IT infrastructure and start with pilot projects.
- Review data management: Rethink your data storage and processing strategies with a view to possible restrictions on transatlantic data traffic.
- Develop contingency plans: Create strategies in case US services suddenly become more expensive or restricted.
- Invest in digital sovereignty: Support EU initiatives and European technology development as a long-term strategy.
Outlook: Between Escalation and Cooperation
While the situation remains dynamic and negotiations could still bring about de-escalation, much points to a longer-term trend towards greater technological autonomy in Europe. The Anti-Coercion Instrument represents a powerful tool with which the EU can defend its economic interests. For European businesses, the current situation offers both risks and opportunities: those who opt for European alternatives early on could not only minimise risks, but also benefit from a growing market for European technology solutions.